Making Money on Trends

There are many different opportunities for Trends. Here is what I have discovered. 1) Entry on a slight reversal in a strong trend. So the trend loses a bit of strength which provides an optimal time to enter and continue riding the trend. The example below is from AUDJPY –Mid March to Mid April 2011. […]

Oversold vs Not Overbought?

So interesting point I noticed today that might be worth keeping in mind for future reference. Often we think about an indicator value crossing some limit to mean something, for example, in SSD if it crosses over the overbought line then it is overbought. Likewise if it crosses under the oversold line then it is […]

Back to Trending Strat

I’ve spent the last week and a bit doing more research and studying. I need more strategies to supplement the two simple strategies I have running now – the continuation and the panic/retracement strategy. It is said the market can do one of three things, Go Up, Go Down, or Go Sideways. Currently, I don’t […]

My optimization metrics

I have decided to document what metrics and process I use to determine a “good” strategy. Final Balance:       The amount of money left after the testing PT/LT Ratio:          The number of Profit trades over the number of Loss trades. Exp Profit:             The Total Profit divided by the number of Profit trades. Exp Loss:               The […]

New Indicators

Today I implemented several indicator ideas that have been on the backlog. Firstly I implemented the RAVI indicator. It seems to be a good indicator of trend strength and good for finding trends. Apparently it is superior than ADX as it is not as laggy. I made a slight variation so that the application of […]

Long trailing stops

Today I made an interesting discovery. While playing around with trailing stops, I noticed that the Panic and Retracement strategy yielded ridiculous profit if a large trailing stop was put on. It appears that the strong retracement picked up by the strategy marks the start of a long trend, and having a rather large stop […]

Continuation Strategy, Fail-Safes, and Scaling

I’ve been looking for a strategy that trades more frequently. Looking at the m15 chart, I noticed that many mini-trends usually have a significant price move compared to previous bars, and additionally have many bars in the same direction at the start of the trend… i.e. it has strong momentum at the start of the […]

Standard Deviation and Z-score

Today I did a bit of work on the Panic Recovery strategies mentioned earlier. I wanted the strategy to support analysis of changes in the price by using standard deviations … so I had to do a bit of a refresher on standard deviations. So the standard deviation is easily explained here: http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/standard-deviation.html But how […]

Research continues

The past few days I’ve been doing more reading and research for interesting techniques and strategy ideas. 1)    One important thing I’ve learned is that risk dictates either the position size or stop loss. So if the acceptable loss/risk amount chosen relative to the account balance of $7000 is 1%, that’s $70. –       If I […]

There is no perfect strategy

Staring at the backtesting charts, and optimizing using my gradient checker, I can easily reduce the number of loss trades (and profit trades) during sideways market periods. However, the discovery of the slowly trending in the non-volatile market mentioned in the previous log entry has bothered me a bit. There is a long trend right […]