Welcome to 2014 – where do we go from here?

Hello World! Welcome to 2014! I hope you all enjoyed your break, I certainly did. I took the break as an opportunity to clear my mind and refocus on the direction I want to take this FX research. Here is the rough plan for the first half of the year: Wrap up and document my […]

Range Breakout: Conclusions

So I’ve finished up my research on the breakout strategy described in the previous post. While I think it has some merit, I couldn’t find a configuration that produces a sufficiently high expectancy for me to run it long time. I did find acceptable configurations for AUDUSD, AUDJPY, GBPAUD, and GBPJPY. If you email me, […]

Breakout: A different kind of trend strategy

The previous trend categorization work is being put on hold. I’ve spent a little bit too long on this and there is so much to look into in FX, I don’t want to get bogged down on a particular idea. Overall I think the trend categorization idea is great, because it will allow a strategy […]

General Strategy Improvements

So as I was reviewing the trades placed last week, my TREND_REV strategy (still in development) placed a trade near market close on Friday. OMAR_TREND_REV:2013/11/15 14:25:15 Enter BUY 16000@93.82300 Bid: 93.79800 Ask: 93.82300 TakeProfit: 95.64800(1.85000) Stop: 92.87200(0.92600)      11/16/2013 06:25:15   93.796 Let’s see… Bid: 93.79800 Ask: 93.82300 … Ask minus Bid, that’s 2.5 pips… okay not […]

When 337 pips isn’t enough

The last few days I’ve been watching an uptrend in GBPJPY. My interest was sparked when my Shock and Retrace strategy, on the 1 minute timeframe was triggered. If you’ll recall, FXCM asked me to run the strategy at 1m timeframes to gather some data, which isn’t what the strategy was designed for but I […]

Eureka! The secret to identifying a winning strategy

I always wanted to know “How do I know if my strategy is a winner?” … I keep seeing in my FX research something that really bugs me, and it is this magical risk/reward ratio of 2. There’s so much information out there that says that you should trade with a risk/reward ratio of at […]

MACD Divergence

While comparing the TrendZ indicator against MACD, I noticed a bunch of good signals from divergence patterns in MACD. In the chart below, the first A-E crosses are divergence. F-J isn’t but still worked. I wanted to see if this really works so I coded a strategy to trade when it detects divergence, or even […]

The Characteristics of a Trend

Ok so I’ve completed the oscillator that I was aiming for, but unfortunately I didn’t quite get what I wanted. It is working as designed but it isn’t as useful as I thought it would be. However, it has definitely given me much food for thought and I have come up with some useful ideas […]

Categorizing Trends

Ok so I have done a couple of days work on this trend categorizing and I am making some progress. I have put together a new indicator, currently called TrendF, that attempts to identify the trends. I thought about this a lot and tried many things. We obviously want to focus on the gradient of […]

Fleet of Strategies

Continuing the thoughts from the November 1st post, we concluded with the mandates Your strategy should behave in all types of markets The markets are always changing, and the configuration must change too. Indeed, I know it is not possible to make a perfect strategy that works all the time (10th July post). At this […]